What to Expect with Donald Trump in Office as of 20 January 2025
As Donald Trump begins his second term as the 47th President of the United States, significant shifts in global trade, energy policy, and international relations are anticipated. we will outlines the potential economic and geopolitical impacts of his “America First” agenda and protectionist measures, emphasizing the challenges and opportunities for the global economy in 2025.
1. Trade and Tariffs
Trump’s administration is expected to introduce tariffs ranging from 10–20% on U.S. imports and up to 60% on imports from China. These measures aim to reduce the U.S. trade deficit but could provoke retaliatory actions, leading to a realignment of global supply chains.
- Impact on allies: Even countries like Vietnam and Mexico, which have benefited from trade realignment in recent years, may face challenges due to potential tariffs.
- Global risk: The escalation of trade restrictions could disproportionately affect open economies in Asia and the EU, prompting “friend-shoring” toward U.S. allies.
2. Security and Defense
The Trump administration's reluctance to provide financial and military support to Ukraine and decreased involvement in NATO could accelerate the decline of the U.S.-led international order.
- Implications: A shift in global military commitments may create uncertainty, particularly in securing international trade routes, which rely heavily on U.S. naval forces.
3. Climate and Energy
Trump’s presidency signals a return to traditional energy sources, with support for fossil fuels like shale oil and natural gas. Climate-friendly policies, such as the Inflation Reduction Act, may see reduced funding or emphasis.
- Effect on the energy market: Increased investments in fossil fuels may conflict with global climate goals.
Regional Impacts
Asia
- Tariffs and currency effects: Higher import tariffs on Chinese goods (potentially up to 60%) and a stronger U.S. dollar could harm Asian economies. Depreciation of the Chinese RMB may further strain regional exporters.
- Geopolitics: Trump's isolationist stance may bring uncertainty to U.S. military commitments in Asia, including Taiwan.
Latin America
- Economic slowdown: Protectionist measures may hurt countries like Mexico, while Central America could face reduced remittances and harsher U.S. migration policies.
- Volatility: Declining U.S. tourism and trade restrictions could pressure foreign exchange reserves and GDP growth in the region.
Europe
- Trade disruptions: Tariffs could reduce European exports to the U.S., while increased global economic uncertainty might affect EU growth.
Global Outlook
we expect that Trump's policies will likely lead to increased global economic fragmentation, slower growth in many regions, and higher volatility in currency and lending markets. Key industries such as energy, manufacturing, and technology are poised to be affected, with allies and competitors alike re calibrating their strategies to adapt to the shifting U.S. policies.
As 2025 unfolds, Trump's presidency is set to test the resilience of global markets and the international order, demanding strategic responses from governments and businesses worldwide.
